As an avid fantasy football participant, I understand how tempting it can be to pick up a free agent coming off a huge game. But, as I’ve matured, I’ve grown to realize that a majority of those performances are flukes. But, truthfully, there’s really no telling. Tashard Choice, the third-string running back for the Buffalo Bills, delivered a solid game last week, but only doing so because of the unfortunate injuries to the two men who rest comfortably ahead of him on the depth chart, Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. Unless Jackson and Spiller are sidelined for a significant amount of time — which I don’t think will be the case — another performance like this shouldn’t be expected.

Mike LeShoure, the Lions’ highly-touted running back who missed the entire 2011 season after suffering a torn Achilles tendon, finally made his much-anticipated NFL debut last week (he was suspended for the first two games of this season following his two offseason arrests on marijuana
possession). Kevin Smith was the Lions’ guy for the first two weeks, but, once LeShoure took the field, Kevin Smith did his best Houdini impersonation and disappeared — he had a whopping total of zero carries, while LeShoure saw 26.

Matt Schaub, QB, Texans: In case you missed the riveting overtime-thriller last week between the Lions and the Titans, Tennessee, which has the third-worst passing defense through the first three weeks, allowed 450 yards through the air and has allowed over 300 yards per game. Schaub was brilliant last week, completing 57% of his passes (17-30) and throwing for 290 yards and four touchdowns. Schaub and his wingman, Andre Johnson, should feast on this vulnerable Titans secondary.

Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals: Dalton picked apart the Redskins defense last week, and ended all the talks regarding a sophomore
slump with an extremely impressive performance. Dalton completed 70% of his passes and threw for 328 yards and 3 TD. Surrounded by a couple of speedy receivers (A.J. Green and Andrew Hawkins), both of whom have astounding yards per catch averages (Green 14.8, Hawkins 17.3), Dalton should be able to thrive this Sunday against a weak Jacksonville defense that has allowed 500+ passing yards over the last two games.

Frank Gore, RB, 49ers: Since Rex Ryan took over as head coach in 2009, the Jets have been known for their tough, physical
defense. This year, they own the fifth-worst run defense in the league, and just last week, they allowed 178 rushing yards (two touchdowns) combined between Reggie Bush, Daniel Thomas, and Lamar Miller. Last week, the 49ers found themselves trailing early in their game against the Vikings and were forced to stray from their typical game plan. Instead of being their physical, bruising self, the 49ers had to rely on Alex Smith to dig them out of the whole and couldn’t afford to give Gore a significant amount of touches (he had 12). This week, if the 49ers can get ahead, Gore should see plenty of carries and will likely make the most of them.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars: The Bengals have struggled trying to stop the run this year, — they’re second-worst in the league — and things won’t get any easier this week when Jones-Drew strolls into town. The reigning NFL Rushing Champion looked tremendous last week, racking up
177 yards and a touchdown on 28 carries. Jones-Drew should have no trouble exposing this Cincinnati defense.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals: He’s back. Despite me putting Fitzgerald on my hate list last week, I said that all he would need is one big game to get him going. Well, he got it. Fitzgerald was simply too much for the Eagles’ secondary last week, catching nine passes for
114 yards and a touchdown. The 3-0 (pardon my laughter) Cardinals will be hosting Miami, the NFL’s fourth-worst defense against the air attack. Whether it’s Kolb or Skelton taking the snaps, he should have one thing going through his mind: Get the ball to Fitzgerald. I’d be shocked if he didn’t.

Brandon Lloyd, WR, Patriots: Brandon Lloyd, at least for the time being, seems to be Brady’s top target. But as long as Wes
Welker is still active, he’s always a threat to go nuts and catch 10+ passes (he had eight for 142 yards last week against Baltimore; Lloyd had nine for 108 yards). If Lloyd continues to get open, you know Brady is going to continue to find him.

Jay Cutler, QB, Bears: This has nothing to do with who he’s playing; I just have a hard time trusting Jay Cutler. We all know what happened a couple weeks ago, when he got into it with one of his offensive linemen, and followed it up with a humorous four-interception performance (he
completed a mere 40% of his passes). The next week wasn’t much better. Once again, Cutler delivered another sub-par performance; he completed 54% of his passes, going 17-for-31 with just 183 yards, no touchdowns, and, of course, an interception. He’s far too unpredictable to be deserving of a
start.

Cam Newton, QB, Panthers: Newton and the Panthers will be welcomed into the Georgia Dome by their division rival-Falcons, arguably the best team in the league. The Falcons shut down Philip Rivers and the used-to-be-undefeated Chargers, which lost its first game of the season that
week, in an embarrassing 27-3 blowout. Rivers threw for a season-low 173 yards on 21 completions – he also had two completions to Falcons players. Newton hasn’t exactly lived up to the monstrous expectations that were set for him after his record-breaking rookie season, and I don’t see anything changing this go round. With the Falcons coming into this game hotter than J.T. Lang, a Packers offensive lineman, on twitter this past week after a god-awful call (I’m actually being too generous) cost the Packers a win, I’m expecting Newton to experience some struggles in trying to solve this Falcons defense.

Kevin Smith, RB, Lions: I think Kevin Smith has seen the last of the games in which he’ll be given a respectable amount of carries. Why? Remember that guy I talked about earlier, Mike LeShoure? Yeah, he’s why.

Chris Johnson, RB, Titans: I’m starting to believe there’s a very good chance that the man we used to know as “CJ2K” will soon be mockingly known as “CJ0K.”  While his offensive line is basically non-existent, Johnson’s performance has been utterly horrendous; just horrid. To
put things in perspective, eight quarterbacks have more rushing yards than Johnson — eight. Through three games, Johnson has, brace yourself, a
mind-boggling 45 yards. I think I’ve said enough.

Steve Smith, WR, Panthers: I already put his quarterback in the hate list, so it would only make sense that his top receiver was on it with him. Despite Smith being fourth in the NFL this year with 246 receiving yards, Atlanta owns the seventh best pass defense in the league. If
Newton struggles, Smith will too.When it comes to deciding on your lineup, one minor slip-up could be that utterly frustrating difference between a win and a loss; choose wisely.