Since the third wild card spot was permanently added to the MLB postseason in 2022, the structure of October baseball has changed drastically. The Division Series pits a team fresh off a series win against a team that has been resting after securing a first round bye. The question is, who really has the benefit?
Although a small sample size from 2022-24,the results are surprising. 50% of teams in both Championship Series since then have come from the Wild Card. In 2023 specifically, 3 of the 4 remaining teams had started their run in the Wild Card, as well as both World Series teams, the 6th seeded Texas Rangers and 5th seeded Arizona Diamondbacks.
This is the opposite of what’s expected. Teams that barely squeak into the postseason become rolling freight trains in the October lights. 43% of teams coming from the Wild Card win game one of the Division Series (since 2022). Baseball, poetic as always, rewards momentum more than anything else. Oftentimes a team gets hot at the right time and takes their hot streak much further than anticipated.
Anyone who’s played or followed baseball closely will tell you it is exponentially difficult to face live pitching after not facing live pitching for any period of time. Timing is everything. No amount of batting practice or cage work can compensate for that. That’s what the Wild Card team brings to the Division Series, in most cases: Bats that haven’t had a second to breathe, due to the win or go home nature of the WC. If their bats weren’t hot, they wouldn’t have advanced to this round.
Theoretically with this school of thought, the team’s with the bye-round should have a better chance to win the later games in the series, as they get their feet under them again in their first series. Additionally, their late-series pitchers should be more rested than that of the Wild Card teams, but the same idea about momentum applies here as well.
What piqued my interest in this debacle was the Philadelphia Phillies inability to make solid contact with a baseball thrown at them the past 2 games of the NLCS. Before the Phillies almost completed their 9th inning comeback last night, they scattered 5 hits, no more than 2 in an inning on Saturday. Of their 7 hits yesterday, they had 1 in the first seven innings. Their offense, one of baseball’s best during the regular season, has suddenly gone cold. You can’t fake rhythm and momentum (no matter how many sellout intersquads you hold).
A person running a flying start 30 yard dash will always run faster than a person running a standing start 30, unless the flying start has some serious flaws. This is the Division Series in a nutshell.
This is not the case for all Division Series though, as this year the Wild Card Chicago Cubs find themselves down 0-2 to the team owning the best regular season record in baseball in the Milwaukee Brewers.
Similarly, the historically successful New York Yankees find themselves flailing a red-hot Toronto Blue Jays. Unlike the hometown Phillies, though, the Yankees are hitting. The Blue Jays are simply hitting more.
2022: 2 of 4 Wild Card teams reached Championship Series, WC Phillies lose to bye-round Astros. Only 1 of 4 WC teams won game one of Division Series.
2023: 3 of 4 Wild Card teams reached Championship Series, WC Rangers beat WC Diamondbacks. 3 of 4 WC teams won game one of Division Series.
2024: Just 1 of 4 Wild Card teams reached Championship Series, bye-round Dodgers beat bye-round Yankees. 1 of 4 WC teams win game one of Division Series.
2025: Wild Card Dodgers up 2-0, WC Tigers down 1-2, WC Cubs down 0-2, WC Yankees down 0-2. 2 of 4 WC teams won game one of Division Series.
The pattern isn’t a perfect science, but momentum is real, and so is rust; timing fades quickly when live at-bats disappear. The past has proven that Wild Card teams seem to be more formidable than they are originally taken for.
